Nope. Your conclusions are wrong. Join the misinformation club.
Not familiar at all w/Bolt, but where does the energy come from to "heat up battery"?...Everything I've read over the past few years about EV battery tech is that "Observation 1" is spot-on. But these batteries become less efficient in both the cold AND the hot.
Just look at lead acid car batteries. Anyone ever have trouble starting their non-electrified cars in the cold?
"Density of air" (never seen anyone claim their EV's get much better range in Denver) and "colder bearings" (really!? After the car has started moving and these bearings heat up?) may have a pittance of an effect, but not to the degree of 10-20% battery efficiency loss that we all see every winter and every hot summer day in our hybrids and EVs.
Real Range for Electric Cars by Temperature & Weather
Note that your Bolt is actually the worst winter range performer in that chart in the middle of that article. Must have the worst air drag coefficient?...
What is efficiency? Please define the term for me.
Efficiency means that you get less, say product, from reaction. For example, just hypothetically, you mix 60 g of one reactant with 100 g of another, you get 160 of product if the reaction yields 100%, right? So, at 90% you will get 0.9x160.
That is NOT the case in batteries. You still get the same capacity.
What you get is SLOWER reaction. Efficiency is still the same, but reaction rate changes. It means at at 25 C you can produce 100 A from your battery, but at 0 C it will make 80 A, or at -20 C it will make 65 A. Just some example.
If we agree on it - let's move on.
The BEV batteries are capable of producing a lot of power (their max power output). Just for Bolt. It has about 60 kWh battery that can produce 400 A. Overall battery pack voltage is 400 V - that means it can provide roughly 160 kW of power. However, for everyday drive you need 80-100 kW (acceleration). To maintain 70 mph it is roughly 25 kW. That means you need 15% of its ability to drive the car.
I agree, on cold days, if the car sat for a few hours outdoor, even when it is full, I will see maybe 140 kW output. It is lowered by not the battery itself, but by the software.
Yet, by the end of the day, I see report that I used same amount of energy - 40-45 kWh. Summer or winter (MI winter, so snow, freeze, all the works).
Now, where the energy is going to?
Rolling resistance. Heating. Air drag.
I never purely tested air drag, but there was a guy on Bolt forum, from I think South Korea, who reported that one day, on his 100? miles trip to work, he averages say 3.8 m/kWh in warm day, just the very next, with also full battery, when the ambient dropped to 5 C, it was 20% less range. Battery was still warm. It was the air, the ambient temperature, that drove more energy use.
I can; however, tell you this - even RAIN increases energy use. I see about 10% drop in range in the rain. Not heavy rain, enough to make the road stay wet.
Why? Air density, water on the road (one thing is driving through water and another is "lifting" water from puddles). If you think of it - there is a lot of water that needs to be lifted and sprayed around. All of this needs energy. The tires stick more to the road. No, no more drip, just more energy needed to roll it.
Air density increases by about 10% between 25 C and 5 C. Add more stiff lubricants...
So, in general - it is a wrong term talking about efficiency. Reaction is still the same. It is much slower at times. Then, weather factors compound on the final efficiency of your drive.
The best comparison for cold battery is honey or oil. Put honey into a 1 liter jar. Keep it warm, say 30 C. Then pour it out. It will flow nicely. Repeat the process at 10 C - it will be much slower. Do it at 0 C. It will take forever. Yet, the amount of honey is still the same. The amount of honey per time unit is different. In other words, battery capacity is still the same, reaction efficiency is still the same, reaction rate changed.
Final remarks - what I suspect is the problem with hybrids is that the batteries are driven near their limits. Like in Bolt I need 20 kW to drive the car, I will need maybe 22-25 kW for Sportage. While it means nothing in Bolt - at 60 kWh battery you get 400 A, so 50 A vs 60 A is no change, for Sportage it might be at the limit.
Sportage has 1.5 kWh battery and max output 64 kW. That is more than enough to power the car in many occasions, yet the algorithm does not allow for it.
EDIT.
Why Bolt failed miserably in the winter test? Due to its heating system.
While many cars have heat pumps or PTC heaters, GM opted for a coolant loop with a heater core. Just like in ICE cars. That makes the system very inefficient as the energy is lost in many places before it reaches the cabin. Not to mention that once you are done driving, all the 2 liters of coolant, plus hoses, metal containers (heating element) lose the energy to the ambient.