[KennyMillar]

The UK has banned the sale of new Petrol and Diesel cars from 2030
My car is just 2 years old (Sportage 1.6 T-GDI) and I am not averse to keeping a car for 10 to 15 years.
I normally have one new-ish car and one older car.

So what is the future?
Full electric is not an option. The UK simply does not have the infrastructure for everyone to go full-electric.
Also range is still an issue - I can drive from my home to the south coast (~500 miles) with one or two short breaks. Can't do that with an electric car!

Personally I think the whole car-ownership model needs a shake up.
Moving to cars-as-a-service would make more sense. (But less enjoyable!) This is where no-one owns a vehicle, but you 'summon' one whenever you need one, and if you're doing a long trip you swap vehicles midway. It brings itslef to you and is fully charged when it arrives. It's only a small jump from there to full automomous vehicles. I can actually see a future where that will become the norm.

When new internal combustion cars are banned, fuel prices will rise exponentially as forecourts close down. That's just ecconomics. Thus rapidly accelerating the move away from petrol and diesel powered cars completely.

When it comes to internal combusion engined vehicles, when the chips start to fall, they will fall quckly.

 

[mccljp]

I believe all of the EU is doing the same. I don't believe any country has the infrastructure to support an all electric world. What with the push to shutdown nuclear power plants along with fossil fuel plants how do they propose to do this? Wind and solar is not going to support it.

Hopefully politicians will get their heads out of their @$$es and see the light.

 

[KennyMillar]

I believe all of the EU is doing the same. I don't believe any country has the infrastructure to support an all electric world. What with the push to shutdown nuclear power plants along with fossil fuel plants how do they propose to do this? Wind and solar is not going to support it.

Hopefully politicians will get their heads out of their @$$es and see the light.

Absolutely. We simply don't have the infrastructure to go full electric. So in just 8 years we need a massive improvement in energy generation, storage, and distribution.
Along with that we need big improvments in miles-per-kWH. I hear some silly politicians talking about super-fast-charging of cars, ie getting a full charge into an electric car in the same time you can fill a petrol tank, but that is just nuts! Imagine the power you'd need to trasnfer in just 2 or 3 minutes. It's a lot safer to transfer 60 litres of hydrocarbons than 250 kW of electricity!

Another thing is charging when away from home - say staying at a friends house - how do you pay for that? None of the current charging systems has a charge-back offer where you can charge your car anywhere and have it billed to you own account. So we need infrastructure to do the back-end builling too. I might have a fleet of cars and negotiate a special deal with the power company, but my employees need to be able to access that deal anywhere. As a fleet operator, I might also wish reports on mileage and power consumption, just like the ones that are available with fuel cards. None of that is in place yet either.

Having said that, there's nothing like a looming deadline to get things moving...

 

[OldITGeek]

I expect you are going to see more hydrogen powered cars.

 

[KennyMillar]

I expect you are going to see more hydrogen powered cars.

Aye, that would make sense.

 

[ron1004]

Those that are old enough to remember the Great Smog of London will welcome technological advancements, and expect there will be teething problems along the way.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Smog_of_London

Great Smog of London | Facts, Pollution, Solution, & History

Great Smog of London, lethal smog that covered the city of London for five days (December 5–9) in 1952, caused by a combination of industrial pollution and high-pressure weather conditions. This combination of smoke and fog brought the city to a near standstill and resulted in thousands of...

www.britannica.com

 

[KennyMillar]

Take a look at these two images of one of new yorks buesiest streets.
They are just 13 years apart. How quickly horse gave way to engine. A similar thing will happen again. Maybe even faster.

EDIT Wrong city!

 

[rvoll]

I grew up in California before it had stricter regulations. The sky was never even slightly blue. Infrastructure will come because the cost of electricity, especially from solar, will remain low and there will be significant profits from charging stations. It takes 18 minutes for an 80% charge on a new Kia EV with the proper charger. The vast majority of charging will come from people's homes. I have solar in my home and my electricity bill is about $13 per month and we keep the house cool in Vegas. (The $13 is for taxes and not actual electricity). The cost of gas will drop over the first years since there will be an oversupply and if it does stay high, it will actually increase the number of people changing to EV's because of cost per mile. People won't hold on to their gas cars because it will just be too expensive to run them and the oil companies want more profits. Right now, it is mostly Russia causing the rise in gas prices because it is a world commodity, and not just a U.S. commodity. But with electric cars coming in the next 10 years, I don't expect any immediate drops in prices because you have a traditional economic milking strategy from the oil companies. And from a world standpoint, you will not see third world countries converting to EV's anytime soon because in many of those countries people keep their cars for 20 or 30 years. Yes, recharging your car at a relative's house while visiting will be an issue. However, if superchargers exist, what's 18 minutes occasionally? Most of us only leave our home for a couple of weeks a year...

 

[KennyMillar]

I grew up in California before it had stricter regulations. The sky was never even slightly blue. Infrastructure will come because the cost of electricity, especially from solar, will remain low and there will be significant profits from charging stations. It takes 18 minutes for an 80% charge on a new Kia EV with the proper charger. The vast majority of charging will come from people's homes. I have solar in my home and my electricity bill is about $13 per month and we keep the house cool in Vegas. (The $13 is for taxes and not actual electricity). The cost of gas will drop over the first years since there will be an oversupply and if it does stay high, it will actually increase the number of people changing to EV's because of cost per mile. People won't hold on to their gas cars because it will just be too expensive to run them and the oil companies want more profits. Right now, it is mostly Russia causing the rise in gas prices because it is a world commodity, and not just a U.S. commodity. But with electric cars coming in the next 10 years, I don't expect any immediate drops in prices because you have a traditional economic milking strategy from the oil companies. And from a world standpoint, you will not see third world countries converting to EV's anytime soon because in many of those countries people keep their cars for 20 or 30 years. Yes, recharging your car at a relative's house while visiting will be an issue. However, if superchargers exist, what's 18 minutes occasionally? Most of us only leave our home for a couple of weeks a year...

Yeah - wow, $13 a month! WOW!
Here in the UK we do not have enough sunshine for any reasonable Solar option. There are solar kits available, but the installation costs are very high, and the feed-in tarrif is very low, making it take over 20 Years to pay for itself. (Yes, for the first 20 years the solar install is not making any money).
Energy bills are about £200-300 per month just for electricity, and without an electric vehicle being charged.
Fuel duty + VAT on petrol and diesel makes a £1 litre of fuel cost £1.90 at the pumps, (yes that's a total of 90% tax and duty!) so the government will not give that up, they will move the duty to road-user-taxation or electricity duty on charging vehicles.

So my point is... given: the costs of installing a charger; the fact that it will need to be changed once they finally get smart billing; the limited range of an EV; the fact there is no cost incentive; then it's a hard sell to move to fully electric vehciles. When the goverment is faced with a hard-sell they just 'mandate' it instead. Hence the upcoming ban. I think under those conditions then not owning a vehcile, but summoning one when needed starts to look attractive.

 

[rvoll]

Yeah - wow, $13 a month! WOW!
Here in the UK we do not have enough sunshine for any reasonable Solar option. There are solar kits available, but the installation costs are very high, and the feed-in tarrif is very low, making it take over 20 Years to pay for itself. (Yes, for the first 20 years the solar install is not making any money).
Energy bills are about £200-300 per month just for electricity, and without an electric vehicle being charged.
Fuel duty + VAT on petrol and diesel makes a £1 litre of fuel cost £1.90 at the pumps, (yes that's a total of 90% tax and duty!) so the government will not give that up, they will move the duty to road-user-taxation or electricity duty on charging vehicles.

So my point is... given: the costs of installing a charger; the fact that it will need to be changed once they finally get smart billing; the limited range of an EV; the fact there is no cost incentive; then it's a hard sell to move to fully electric vehciles. When the goverment is faced with a hard-sell they just 'mandate' it instead. Hence the upcoming ban. I think under those conditions then not owning a vehcile, but summoning one when needed starts to look attractive.

The issue is not a country by country one, but global. The car market in the U.S. is huge and to serve that market with EV's only makes manufacturing petrol cars uneconomical. China, the other global superpower must go EV because they buy their petroleum from other countries and they have a huge pollution issue. Germany has enough sun to make solar useful. Sorry, but the U.K. needs to find another solution and your solution may well be a useful one.

My payback on solar is only 5.5 years because of the cost, amount of sun here in Vegas, and tax credits. I used to live in NJ and it cost me about $4,000 a year just for heating oil. (Now the cost would be about $6,000 per year.) I waited to buy solar until the cost curve was maximized. (I actually graphed the payback curve every year). Most people who buy solar here actually lease their equipment and don't pay anything upfront.

I still have difficulty understanding all of these people stuffed in large cities and states/locations that have significant taxes and crowded highways. Where we live, I don't pay state taxes, don't spend virtually any time in traffic jams, can get any type of food within 10 minutes of my house, go to any of the 2500 shows available every day, and being able to afford a sizeable home. Yeah, it's hot 4 months of the year, but the rest of the time, the weather is great. It's better than having a great house in NJ overlooking a lake with all of the taxes and expenses and the fact that clearing the snow frozen to my 600 foot driveway caused me to have a heart attack....

 

[KennyMillar]

<snip>It's better than having a great house in NJ overlooking a lake with all of the taxes and expenses and the fact that clearing the snow frozen to my 600 foot driveway caused me to have a heart attack....

Yeah, I agree. I moved out of the city 35 years ago, to the suburbs, but then from the suburbs to a rural area and I would never go back. Never. They'll take me out of here in a box.
Shovelling snow during the 'beast from the east' in 2018 also led to me having an MI. You are also correct that the UK needs to come up with a solution. Unfortunately the political half-life is just 4 years, so no one in power cares.

 

[SoothingDave]

I imagine the government will back down from their ludicrous mandates when the public demands it.

The idea that people will just passively accept that the government has priced them out of having their own private transportation is not rooted in history. The wild inflation happening now is going to change a lot of things. One of them the idea that we must impoverish ourselves in order to “save the planet.”

That’s not popular.

 

[dubber09]

WEF's agenda is to rid people of their property after 2030, so if this comes to reality we won't own cars anyway.

 

[timbit]

Here in Canada they are building nuclear plants. Ive read more companies are leaning towards hydrogen. Ive also seen prototypes of roads that charge while u drive or anyone remember grand Turismos Nissan concept vision? The car charges its self. There are many options but jus need to be worked out. Unfortunately gasoline vehicle sales here in Canada will be done by 2030. Many manufacturers are ending sales much sooner.

 

[dubber09]

The problem is not so much with electric concept but with tech not ready yet as well as infrastructure, if every 10th car goes electric, guess what? There is not enough electricity to charge them. Guess what is gonna happen? Something like no private cars. Nuc power plants will take too long to build and that's if they are approved, then there is shortage of fuel, entire West is acting as if they don't need nuc fuel from Russia but we do. Look at what happened in Germany who closed nuc plants and France that refused to do so.

 

[KennyMillar]

Here in Canada they are building nuclear plants. Ive read more companies are leaning towards hydrogen. Ive also seen prototypes of roads that charge while u drive or anyone remember grand Turismos Nissan concept vision? The car charges its self. There are many options but jus need to be worked out. Unfortunately gasoline vehicle sales here in Canada will be done by 2030. Many manufacturers are ending sales much sooner.

Charge while you drive is an option, but only with some kind of over-head rail, which really means only for trucks. But still - that eneregy has to come from somewhere and the UK simply can't generate it. One of our biggest nuclear plants is shutting down in August. The government asked IDF to extend it's life but was told that it's too late, the process of shutting down has begun and cannot be stopped now. Lets be clear on one thing - solar roads, and cars with solar roofs are just daydreams, the physics just doesn't work. A prototype solar bike made like an egg, with complete solar panel coverage could only just generate enough power to propel it's micro-light frame, certainly not enought to charge a passenger car!

I think there's loads of issues to iron out, and we really need to be working seriously on them now. The fact that we're not probably means the gov't already knows its plans to ban engine's is just election spin.

 

[rvoll]

Hey, guys... It's not about politics... It's about economics. No large auto manufacturer will support the infrastructure (eventually) for both ICE's and EV's. The U.S. and China are going EV and the rest of the world is just going to have to live with it. Countries are national -- companies are global and will do the best for their shareholders. The options for new battery technologies are mindblowing. You can't take today's situation and apply it to the next decade. EV's are far more profitable to auto companies that ICE's. Some of the new electric motors are 1/4 the size of the ones used by Tesla. A lot of older people just don't like a whole lot of change. But EV's are going to be very popular with younger drivers when the costs go down. It happened with smartphones and it will happen with cars. If you want to live in the past, you can. But if I can get a faster car which has a lot less maintenance and a lot of tech -- sign me up.... Unfortunately for me, I don't have that many years left, so I'm even more motivated to move on....

 

[timbit]

Charge while you drive is an option, but only with some kind of over-head rail, which really means only for trucks. But still - that eneregy has to come from somewhere and the UK simply can't generate it. One of our biggest nuclear plants is shutting down in August. The government asked IDF to extend it's life but was told that it's too late, the process of shutting down has begun and cannot be stopped now. Lets be clear on one thing - solar roads, and cars with solar roofs are just daydreams, the physics just doesn't work. A prototype solar bike made like an egg, with complete solar panel coverage could only just generate enough power to propel it's micro-light frame, certainly not enought to charge a passenger car!

I think there's loads of issues to iron out, and we really need to be working seriously on them now. The fact that we're not probably means the gov't already knows its plans to ban engine's is just election spin.

The charge while u drive thing comes from some sort of generator at the wheel hub. Not sure exactly how it works but using gran Turismo as reference when u accelerate it uses juice, when u let off the pedal it charges. Might not be great for long runs but batteries are advancing. As mentioned in 10yrs from now tech will be completely diff lol. I dunno.. i jus can't wrap my head around an electric vehicle. Im not that old but i am a gearhead

 

[KennyMillar]

Hey, guys... It's not about politics... It's about economics. No large auto manufacturer will support the infrastructure (eventually) for both ICE's and EV's. The U.S. and China are going EV and the rest of the world is just going to have to live with it.

This is the point though.... EVs don;t make any kind of sense. There simply is not enough infracstructure to deal with EVs. You can't have cables running all over the streets, and what about people in high-rise flats? In fact, and this was my original point, in a world with no ICEs, then car-ownership doesn't make sense. Cars-as-a-service makes more sense, and everything we need for that already exists. Except one important thing - mindset. I for one will be very saddened by the day I no longer own a car.

 

[LouV]

It is easy to say all vehicles must be electrically powered.California is really pushing hard for that. However, their power grid is terrible. Between large fires and heat waves their grid often shuts down or rolling blackouts. What if their fire trucks needed to be recharged during a large fire? Imagine plugging in all the EVs during a rolling blackout. I live in the midwest of the US. We are having aheat wave and some electrical companies are warning about rolling blackouts.

Talk is cheap, making it work isn't.